Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism

A virtual meeting of the Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism will be held 28 Sep 2021.

This meeting is closed to the public.

This project will examine the use of analytical methods to assess the risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war and the role such approaches may play in U.S. security strategy.

Background

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will convene an ad hoc committee of experts to examine whether a risk assessment framework is applicable to determining the potential risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war; and to examine assumptions in nuclear policy and doctrine and their implications on national security.During this examination, the committee will undertake the following:

1. Identify risks associated with nuclear terrorism and nuclear war;
2. Explore the prior literature relevant to assessing risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war;
3. Assess the role that quantitative and nonquantitative analytical methods can play in estimating such risks, including the limitations of such analysis; 
4. Identify and examine the assumptions about nuclear risks that underlie the national security strategy of the United States; and
5. Describe the consequences or impacts of the methods and assumptions that have been, are, or could be used in developing the nuclear security strategy of the United States.

The committee will issue an unclassified interim report which may include findings and recommendations regarding the use of analytical methods to assess the risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war.

At the conclusion of the study, the committee will issue a final report that expands upon the use of analytical methods to assess the risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war and the role such approaches may play in U.S. security strategy. This final report may include findings and recommendations supported by classified information.