How Credible Nuclear Security Guarantees Backfire

How Credible Nuclear Security Guarantees Backfire with Lauren Sukin

Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) will discuss How Credible Nuclear Security Guarantees Backfire during a virtual event open to the public on 26 April 2022. Those with an active Stanford ID may attend in person at Encina Hall.

Existing literature posits that the main challenge for nuclear security guarantees lies in making the promise of protection sufficiently credible. If allies do not believe their guarantor will actually come to their aid, they may seek alternate means of protection, including by investing in nuclear infrastructure. Credible security guarantees, on the other hand, are thought to reassure allies. In contrast to this approach, Dr. Sukin argues that credible nuclear guarantees can backfire. These guarantees can cause clients to fear that their guarantors will drag them into a precipitous nuclear conflict. Fears of nuclear escalation by their guarantor can drive clients to distance themselves from their alliance or seek stronger independent nuclear capabilities. Using survey experiments and case studies of U.S. alliances in East Asia and Europe, this project explores the risks of credible U.S. nuclear security guarantees.

About the Speaker:

Dr. Lauren Sukin is currently a MacArthur Nuclear Security Fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. In September 2022, she will join the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science as an Assistant Professor of International Relations. Dr. Sukin holds a Ph.D. (2021) and M.A. (2020) from the Department of Political Science at Stanford University. She also holds A.B.s from the Departments of Political Science and Literary Arts at Brown University (2016). Dr. Sukin’s research examines issues of international security, focusing on the role of nuclear weapons in international politics.

The Virtual option is open to the Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to William J Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Please visit CISAC’s How Credible Nuclear Security Guarantees Backfire event listing to register.